Economist: Trucking Sector Turnaround Not Likely in 2025

The U.S. trucking industry, which has been in a prolonged downturn since mid-2022, is not expected to recover significantly in 2025, according to leading industry economists. The sector continues to face weak freight demand, excess capacity, and tight margins — with few signs of reversal in the short term.

• Freight volumes remain flat or declining, particularly in dry van and refrigerated segments.

• Spot rates are well below 5-year averages, squeezing small carriers and owner-operators.

• The overcapacity problem persists, with too many trucks chasing too little freight.

  
  

Inflation and Consumer Spending

A major drag on trucking demand has been reduced consumer spending on goods, especially durable items like furniture and electronics. While inflation is cooling, consumers have shifted toward services and travel, leaving retail and e-commerce shipping volumes subdued.

• Thousands of small carriers have exited the market over the past year, unable to survive under low rates and high operating costs.

• Larger fleets have begun absorbing market share, but even they are struggling with rising insurance, fuel, and labor costs.

High interest rates have made equipment financing more expensive, discouraging fleet expansion and investment in newer, more efficient trucks. Economists warn that unless borrowing costs drop, capital investment will remain sluggish.

According to analysts:

• Consumer demand is not expected to rise meaningfully in early 2025.

• Retail inventories remain elevated, limiting replenishment cycles.

• No major infrastructure projects or regulatory changes are expected to stimulate freight demand in the near term.

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Potential Signs of Stabilization

While a full recovery is not expected, there may be modest stabilization by late 2025 if:

• More capacity exits the market,

• Spot rates reach breakeven levels,

• And contract rates hold steady.

However, experts emphasize that this would be a “bottoming out,” not a rebound.