Truck Operators Still Waiting for Recovery amid Trade Uncertainty

U.S. trucking companies had entered 2025 with high hopes that the freight market would rebound after a prolonged slump. But instead of recovery, they’ve encountered persistent weakness — largely driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a sluggish manufacturing sector.

Despite seasonal periods when freight activity typically spikes, such as back-to-school and summer restocking, shipping demand remains flat. Many businesses are hesitant to place large orders due to unresolved tariff questions, leading to reduced cargo volumes and delayed manufacturing cycles.

According to the Cass Freight Shipments Index, May marked the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, falling by 4%. Companies that had overstocked during previous trade disruptions are now gradually working through existing inventory, meaning less demand for transport services.

Economists also point to falling industrial activity. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a drop in its Manufacturing Index to 48.5, signaling a contraction. That further weakens the freight outlook, as fewer manufactured goods means fewer trucks on the road.

This sluggish environment is affecting both freight pricing and investment decisions:

• Contract freight rates have dropped compared to last year, with average truckload prices sitting at around $2.36 per mile.

• Spot market rates—which represent short-term freight pricing—have dropped by more than 9% year-to-date.

As a result, trucking companies are holding back on fleet upgrades. In May, orders for new heavy-duty Class 8 trucks totaled just over 13,000 — one of the weakest months in recent memory. Fleet operators remain cautious, fearing overcapacity in a stagnant market.

Dean Croke, an analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, summed up the sentiment:

In short, the trucking industry is stuck in a holding pattern, caught between geopolitical trade tension and weak domestic demand. Until broader economic forces shift — particularly inventory restocking and tariff resolution — recovery in freight transport may remain out of reach.